Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Phillies vs Reds Match – Monday, August 11, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 11, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park in a matchup that carries significant weight for both teams. The Reds, currently sitting at 62-57, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a strong 68-49 record, showcasing their position as one of the top teams in the league. The Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has had a solid season with an 8-2 record and an impressive 2.34 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as his xFIP stands at 4.44, indicating potential regression.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker, who has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. Walker’s 4-5 record and 3.53 ERA may seem decent, but his 4.50 xFIP reveals underlying issues that could come to the forefront against a Reds offense that has been inconsistent.

In their last game, the Reds’ best hitter has been on fire, recording 6 hits and 5 runs over the past week, with a scorching .429 batting average. This performance could be crucial as the Reds offense, ranked 20th in MLB, looks to exploit Walker’s vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ offense ranks 8th, led by a player who has also been hot, boasting a .500 batting average and 2 home runs in his last five games.

With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs and the Reds currently favored at -130, betting markets suggest this matchup will be competitive. Cincinnati’s projected team total of 4.97 runs indicates confidence in their ability to score, especially if Abbott can maintain his form against a struggling Walker.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Taijuan Walker has averaged 14.3 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under Total Bases
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance this year. His .290 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Andrew Abbott’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.7% vs. 46.5% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Elly De La Cruz has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn’t generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 96 games (+26.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 away games (+14.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 67% ROI)