Prediction and Game Breakdown: Marlins vs Braves Match Sunday August 10, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins on August 10, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup. Both teams are underperforming this season; the Braves hold a record of 50-67 while the Marlins sit at 57-60. This game marks the fifth in their series, with the Braves hoping to turn their fortunes around after struggling significantly.

In their previous outing, Atlanta’s Joey Wentz is projected to take the mound against Miami’s Cal Quantrill. Wentz, despite being ranked as the 210th best starter in Major League Baseball according to advanced metrics, has shown signs of potential, with a 4.60 xFIP that suggests he might have been unlucky this season. However, his Win/Loss record of 2-3 and a troubling ERA of 5.34 indicate that he’s still searching for consistency. Wentz projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but his high potential for walks (1.8 projected) could be problematic against a patient Braves lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for walks.

Cal Quantrill, also struggling with a 4-9 record and a 5.21 ERA, enters this matchup with a low-walk percentage of just 6.7%. This could play to his advantage against the Braves, who may find it challenging to capitalize on his control. Quantrill projects for 4.6 innings and 2.8 earned runs, facing a Braves offense ranked 19th overall. Atlanta’s offensive woes are further underscored by their 21st rank in batting average, a significant concern as they look to exploit any weaknesses in the Marlins.

With the Braves’ bullpen ranked 9th in MLB, they may have the edge in late-game situations if they can keep the score close. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive contest, and Atlanta’s moneyline sits at -135, suggesting confidence in their ability to claim a win despite their current struggles.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Cal Quantrill has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eric Wagaman has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Joey Wentz has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Miami’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Michael Harris II, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 48 games at home (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+17.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 57% ROI)