Get Expert Player Predictions for Royals vs Twins – August 10, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals on August 10, 2025, in a matchup of two teams lingering around .500. The Twins sit at 55-61 this season, struggling to find their footing, while the Royals, at 58-59, have managed to maintain an average record. The stakes are relatively low, but the series is pivotal for both squads as they look to gain momentum.

In their last outing, the Twins were shut out by the Royals, falling 2-0. This defeat highlights the offensive challenges facing both teams. The Twins rank 14th in MLB for offensive prowess, while the Royals trail slightly at 26th. Notably, the Twins have struggled to generate power, placing 28th in home runs, which is a critical factor against any pitching staff.

On the mound, the Twins are set to start Jose Urena, who is currently ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, sitting at 301st. His ERA of 5.24, compounded by a high 7.70 xERA, suggests that he has been lucky thus far. He projects to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs while giving up 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks.

In contrast, Royals pitcher Ryan Bergert has shown flashes of excellence, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.83. However, projections indicate that he, too, may have enjoyed some good fortune, given his xFIP of 4.90. Bergert is coming off a strong performance where he pitched 6 innings with 2 earned runs in his last start on August 5.

With both teams displaying flaws but also opportunities, this game features a balanced matchup. The projections suggest a close contest, and with both offenses capable of producing under the right conditions, spectators can expect an intriguing battle at Target Field.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Compared to the average hurler, Ryan Bergert has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -10.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Mike Yastrzemski will probably have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Kansas City Royals batters jointly place 26th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 7.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Jose Urena has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 4.04 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.30 — a 1.26 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In terms of his home runs, Trevor Larnach has had some very good luck this year. His 21.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kody Clemens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 94 games (+19.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 108% ROI)