Learn from the Match Preview: Phillies vs Rangers Game Forecast – August 08, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Texas Rangers

On August 8, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Globe Life Field in an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are currently positioned in the middle of the standings, with the Phillies at 65-49, enjoying a solid season, while the Rangers sit at 60-56, having an above-average year. Notably, Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies is coming off a strong performance, having thrown a complete game shutout in his last outing, which adds to the excitement surrounding this matchup.

The Rangers are projected to start Merrill Kelly, who is ranked 47th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Kelly has had an average season with a 3.22 ERA and a 9-6 record over 23 starts. However, the projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.77 SIERA indicates potential regression. Kelly’s average projections for this game include allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters, but he has struggled with hits and walks, allowing 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

In contrast, Cristopher Sanchez stands out as an elite option, ranked 10th in MLB with a remarkable 2.40 ERA and a 10-3 record over 22 starts. Sanchez projects to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs, making him a tough challenge for the Rangers’ offense, which ranks 27th overall this season. The Rangers’ struggles at the plate are evident, particularly in their batting average, which also ranks 27th.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, and the Rangers’ moneyline at +110, betting markets indicate a close contest. However, the Phillies’ superior pitching and offensive capabilities suggest they may have the upper hand in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cristopher Sanchez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year. His 47.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 38.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Today, J.T. Realmuto is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (+115)
  Among all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Josh Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 52 away games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+11.10 Units / 139% ROI)