Current Player Trends for Athletics vs Nationals – Thursday August 07, 2025

Athletics

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the Oakland Athletics on August 7, 2025, in the third game of their series, following a narrow 2-1 victory by the Nationals in yesterday’s contest. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 45-68 and the Athletics at 50-66.

Mitchell Parker, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a rocky season, holding a 7-11 record and a troubling ERA of 5.35. Despite ranking as the 239th best starting pitcher in MLB, Parker’s 4.63 FIP suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. However, he faces a daunting task against a powerful Athletics offense that ranks 7th overall in MLB, boasting 159 home runs this season.

On the other side, Jacob Lopez will take the mound for the Athletics. Lopez, with a respectable ERA of 3.99 and an average strikeout rate of 27.2%, is coming off an impressive outing where he tossed five scoreless innings. His ability to minimize damage could be key, especially against a Nationals offense that ranks 23rd overall and has struggled to generate consistent power this season.

Betting lines favor the Athletics, but the projections hint at a closer matchup than the odds suggest. With the Nationals’ best hitter heating up—recording a 1.378 OPS over the past week—there’s potential for an upset. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations of offensive fireworks, particularly with the Athletics’ high-flyball tendencies matching up against Parker’s penchant for allowing flyballs.

As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this game presents a pivotal opportunity for the Nationals to build momentum against a struggling Athletics bullpen ranked 29th in MLB.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all SPs, Jacob Lopez’s fastball spin rate of 2124 rpm is in the 3rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Despite posting a .432 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nicholas Kurtz has experienced some positive variance given the .085 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .347.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitchell Parker will rack up an average of 4.7 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+11.27 Units / 10% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (-150)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+7.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)