San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-105/-115)+115
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Diamondbacks are currently 54-59, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Padres boast a solid 62-51 record, positioning themselves well above average. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game of a series where the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their home advantage at Chase Field.
In their last outing, the Diamondbacks faced the Padres and came up short, continuing their below-average streak. Arizona’s offense, ranking 4th best in MLB, will aim to exploit the struggles of Padres’ pitcher Nestor Cortes, who has been less than stellar with a 9.00 ERA this season. Cortes has struggled with walks, holding an 18.4% walk rate, which could play into the hands of the Diamondbacks, who rank 5th in MLB for drawing walks.
On the mound for Arizona is Anthony DeSclafani, who has had a rough year with a 4.91 ERA and a Power Ranking placing him 192nd among MLB starters. However, projections suggest he may have been unlucky this season, indicating potential for improvement. DeSclafani’s ability to limit runs will be crucial, especially facing a Padres offense that ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling to find consistent power with a 29th ranking in home runs.
Given the contrasting strengths of the Diamondbacks’ offense and the Padres’ pitching woes, Arizona could pull off an upset, especially considering their high implied team total of 4.41 runs compared to the Padres’ 5.09. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, fans can expect an engaging contest as both teams vie for a crucial win in this pivotal series.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Nestor Cortes’s 92.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 23rd percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 85.8-mph mark last year has dropped to 83-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Anthony DeSclafani – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony DeSclafani to throw 76 pitches in this matchup (4th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Extreme flyball batters like Blaze Alexander tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 90 games (+12.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 113 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)