Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Cardinals vs Dodgers – August 6th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On August 6, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium for the third game of their series. The Dodgers, currently sitting at 66-48, have been enjoying a strong season, while the Cardinals are slightly below .500 at 57-58, reflecting an average performance. In their last game, the Dodgers defeated the Cardinals 12-6, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB this season.

The matchup features elite right-hander Shohei Ohtani taking the mound for Los Angeles. Ohtani, who boasts a standout 2.40 ERA and ranks as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, is projected to pitch 3.3 innings today, which is concerning considering he may allow 1.5 earned runs on average. However, his strikeout rate of 3.8 batters per game indicates he can still be a dominating force despite recent struggles.

On the other side, St. Louis will send lefty Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore has a 3.96 ERA this season but is seen as a below-average pitcher in the rankings. He has struggled with consistency, projecting to pitch 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a high-powered Dodgers lineup.

With the Dodgers’ offense ranking 4th in batting average and 2nd in home runs, they are expected to capitalize on Liberatore’s weaknesses. The projections suggest Los Angeles will score an impressive 5.28 runs, while St. Louis may struggle to reach their projected total of 3.72 runs. As a result, the Dodgers are favored to secure another victory and extend their lead in the standings.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matthew Liberatore to throw 83 pitches in this game (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Ivan Herrera has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 96.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mookie Betts’s true offensive ability to be a .348, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .054 deviation between that mark and his actual .294 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 46% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 34% ROI)