San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-120/+100)+100
On August 5, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field in a crucial National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at 54-59, are looking to build on their recent victory over the Padres, where they triumphed 6-2 in their last meeting. Meanwhile, the Padres stand at 62-51 and are coming off a disappointing loss in that same game.
Both teams bring unique strengths to the mound, with Ryne Nelson projected to start for Arizona and Yu Darvish taking the hill for San Diego. Nelson has shown promise this season, boasting a respectable 3.20 ERA and a 6-3 record over 13 starts. His last outing was particularly strong, as he pitched 5 innings, allowing only 1 earned run while striking out 8 batters. However, projections indicate Nelson may be due for some regression, as his xFIP of 4.04 suggests he’s been a bit lucky.
On the other hand, Darvish has struggled this year with a troubling 6.46 ERA and a 1-3 record in just 5 starts. Although his xFIP of 4.56 hints that he might improve, his recent performance, including a solid 7-inning outing with no earned runs in his last start, raises questions about his consistency.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 4th in MLB for runs scored and have a powerful lineup that includes significant home run production (155 this year, 6th best). Conversely, the Padres’ offense has faltered, ranking 22nd overall and 29th in home runs, which could put additional pressure on Darvish if he struggles again.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs set for this matchup, betting markets suggest a close contest. The Diamondbacks have a healthy implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Padres sit at 4.61, indicating that this clash could be an exciting and competitive one for fans and bettors alike.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-180)Yu Darvish has averaged 71.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 4th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (65.3 vs. 56% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Corbin Carroll’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.7-mph now compared to just 89.2-mph then.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+15.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)