Athletics
Washington Nationals
(-120/+100)-135
The Washington Nationals are set to host the Oakland Athletics at Nationals Park on August 5, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals holding a record of 44-67, while the Athletics sit at 49-65. Last time out, the Nationals faced a tough defeat, losing 14-3, while the Athletics fell 6-4.
On the mound for Washington will be MacKenzie Gore, who has had a season filled with ups and downs. Despite his 4-11 record and a solid ERA of 3.80, Gore is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is above average, but he also struggles with walks and hits allowed. He ranks as the 58th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, suggesting he has the potential to perform well. However, his recent outing was a rough one, as he got hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs in just 5 innings.
Luis Severino will take the hill for Oakland. With a 5-11 record and a 4.83 ERA, Severino has had a challenging season. His peripherals indicate he’s been unlucky, with a FIP of 4.14, but he still projects to allow 3.2 earned runs today. His low strikeout rate of 17.1% could give the Nationals’ offense a chance to make contact, which is crucial since they have the 4th least strikeouts in MLB.
From an offensive standpoint, the Athletics rank 9th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs, while the Nationals are 23rd best overall. The Nationals’ best hitter has been productive recently, recording a .412 batting average over the last week, which could help them in this matchup. With the Nationals listed at -135 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, they may have the edge, particularly considering they play at home.
Athletics Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Luis Severino’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (51% compared to 39.7% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nicholas Kurtz’s true offensive talent to be a .346, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .083 deviation between that mark and his actual .429 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Tyler Soderstrom has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (94.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.9 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Nathaniel Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)James Wood has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 53% ROI)