Player Props Analysis for Orioles vs Phillies – Tuesday August 5th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Philadelphia Phillies

On August 5, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with a 64-48 record, positioning them well in the playoff race. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 51-62, struggling to find consistency and facing an uphill battle for relevance this season.

In their last matchup, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Phillies’ lineup ranks 8th in MLB, and their recent performance has been impressive, with their best hitter boasting a .429 batting average over the last week. This offensive depth will be crucial as they face Dean Kremer, who has an average ERA of 4.27 this season but is projected to give up a concerning 3.1 earned runs today.

The Phillies are projected to start Taijuan Walker, a right-handed pitcher with a 3-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.82 this year. However, his xFIP of 4.60 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, and he projects to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs on average. The projections indicate that he might face challenges against the Orioles’ lineup, which ranks 16th in MLB.

Despite the concerns surrounding Walker, the Phillies’ bullpen is ranked 18th in MLB, providing a decent safety net. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ bullpen has struggled significantly, ranked dead last at 30th, which could be a decisive factor in this matchup.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 5.07 runs for Philadelphia, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Orioles’ weaknesses.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dean Kremer has recorded a 9% Swinging Strike rate this year, ranking in the 24th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Tyler O’Neill has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 97.9-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-185)
  Generating 14 outs per start this year on average, Taijuan Walker falls in the 10th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has had some very poor luck this year. His .283 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+10.76 Units / 12% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 away games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Dylan Carlson has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.95 Units / 87% ROI)