Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Dodgers vs Reds – Monday July 28, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cincinnati Reds

On July 28, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. The Reds, sitting at 56-50, are having an above-average season and are looking to gain ground in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Dodgers hold a strong 61-45 record, showcasing their elite status this year.

In their last game, the Dodgers managed to secure a victory against the Reds, which adds pressure on Cincinnati to perform well in this series opener. The projected starters are Chase Burns for the Reds and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers. Burns has struggled this season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.65, indicating a tough outing ahead for him against a powerful Dodgers lineup. Despite a somewhat unlucky season, as indicated by his xFIP of 2.90, Burns is still projected to pitch only 4.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs today.

On the other hand, Yamamoto enters the game with an impressive 2.55 ERA and a 3.07 xFIP, suggesting he could be a tough challenge for the Reds. Furthermore, his projections indicate he will pitch 5.7 innings and allow about 2.4 earned runs. With the Dodgers’ offense ranking 2nd in MLB and featuring players who can capitalize on Burns’s high flyball rate, they are likely to exploit this matchup.

Betting odds favor the Dodgers, who have a current moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 5.02 runs, compared to the Reds’ moneyline of +145 and an average implied total of 3.98 runs. As both teams look to establish their dominance in the series, the Reds will need a strong performance from their offense, which ranks 14th in MLB, to keep pace with the Dodgers’ high-powered attack.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Among all starters, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate of 2180 rpm grades out in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Freddie Freeman has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns will “start” for Cincinnati Reds in today’s matchup but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Spencer Steer tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds (25.4% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.85 Units / 98% ROI)