Game Forecast: Mets vs Giants Match Preview – 7/26/25

New York Mets

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets on July 26, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a crucial matchup. The Giants, currently sitting at 54-50, are having an above-average season but find themselves in a tough spot after losing to the Mets 8-1 just a day prior. Meanwhile, the Mets are enjoying a great season with a record of 60-44, solidifying their place among the contenders.

On the mound, the Giants will send Robbie Ray, who has had an up-and-down year. Despite a solid 2.92 ERA, his 3.94 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, and his recent struggles include allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. Ray’s high walk rate of 9.8% could be problematic against a patient Mets lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in drawing walks.

David Peterson takes the hill for the Mets. With a 2.90 ERA and an average projection, he has shown consistent performances, including a solid outing in his last start where he went 6 innings without allowing an earned run. However, his own xFIP of 3.58 suggests he might also be due for a regression.

Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, struggling to find their rhythm. In contrast, the Mets boast a more balanced attack, ranking 11th overall, particularly excelling in home runs where they sit 8th. This disparity could be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, oddsmakers expect a tight contest. The Giants’ moneyline is currently set at -110, reflecting a balanced view of both teams’ chances. Given the Giants’ strong bullpen, which ranks 5th in MLB, they could leverage their relief pitchers effectively, especially if they can keep the game close early on.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Because groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, David Peterson and his 51.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot today going up against 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robbie Ray faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)