Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Mets vs Royals Analysis – 7/11/2025

New York Mets

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Kansas City Royals

On July 11, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the New York Mets at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of their interleague series. The Royals enter this matchup with a record of 46-48, having shown some signs of life but still struggling to find consistency. Meanwhile, the Mets are enjoying a solid season at 53-41 and are looking to build on their recent success. Notably, Kodai Senga is coming off a stellar outing where he pitched a complete game shutout, showcasing his dominant form.

In this matchup, Senga will face a Royals offense that ranks just 25th in the league, a stark contrast to the Mets’ 7th-ranked lineup. With the Royals averaging only 4.19 runs per game, they will need to find a way to break through against Senga, who boasts an impressive 1.47 ERA this season. However, projections suggest that Senga may be due for some regression, as his xFIP sits at 4.05, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate.

Michael Wacha is slated to take the mound for Kansas City, and despite being ranked 78th among starting pitchers, he has had a mixed season with a 4-9 record and a 3.83 ERA. While Wacha’s ERA is solid, his projected performance indicates he may struggle, particularly as he averages 5.3 hits and 2.9 earned runs allowed per game.

As the Royals look to upset the odds, they will rely heavily on their best hitter, who has been performing well recently with a .318 batting average and 1.257 OPS over the last week. However, with the Mets’ strong offensive capabilities and Senga’s recent form, the Royals will need to capitalize on any opportunities to keep the game competitive. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Kodai Senga’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (64.3% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In comparison to his 89.7-mph average last year, Pete Alonso’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Michael Wacha’s 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Salvador Perez has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 21.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 32.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 46 games at home (+23.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.15 Units / 56% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)