Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Marlins vs Orioles Match – 7/11/25

Miami Marlins

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 11, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Miami Marlins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves struggling this season, each sporting a record of 42-50 and hovering below .500. While neither team is contending for the playoffs, there’s still plenty to watch as they look to build momentum.

The Orioles are projected to start Dean Kremer, who has had a mixed season. With a Win/Loss record of 7-7 and an average ERA of 4.53, Kremer ranks as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His projections suggest he may struggle today, with averages of 3.2 earned runs and 6.1 hits allowed. However, Kremer’s high-flyball tendency (36% flyball rate) could work in his favor against a Marlins offense that has hit just 81 home runs this year, ranking 5th least in MLB.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera will take the mound for the Marlins. With a record of 3-3 and a stellar ERA of 3.33, Cabrera is considered an average pitcher. However, his SIERA and FIP suggest he has been a bit lucky this season, indicating potential regression. Cabrera projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and 4.6 hits today, making him a slightly more favorable option than Kremer in this matchup.

Both offenses have their weaknesses, with the Orioles ranking 21st in overall offense and 23rd in batting average, while the Marlins are 20th overall but boast a 9th ranking in batting average. The Orioles have an implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Marlins are set at 4.29 runs for this matchup, indicating a potentially close contest. As both teams fight for a much-needed win, fans should expect an intriguing battle on the mound and at the plate.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all starters, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph ranks in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Bats such as Dane Myers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dean Kremer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in the league in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Tyler O’Neill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.13 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+14.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-175/+135)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)