Rankings and Game Forecast: Rangers vs Angels Analysis – Monday July 7, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Texas Rangers on July 7, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to gain traction in the American League West. The Angels currently sit at 43-46, while the Rangers are slightly better at 44-46, marking this matchup as crucial for both squads as they look to turn their seasons around.

In their last game, the Rangers managed to secure a win against the Angels, but both teams have had their share of ups and downs lately. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to take the mound for the Angels, bringing a mixed bag of performance this season. While his 2.81 ERA is impressive, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Kikuchi’s ability to strike out 6.0 batters on average is solid, but he also projects to allow a concerning 5.6 hits and 1.6 walks per game.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Jacob deGrom, who continues to impress with a 2.13 ERA and a strong 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Despite his elite status, deGrom’s 3.28 xFIP indicates he could face challenges ahead. Given that the Angels rank 5th in MLB for home runs, they may capitalize on deGrom’s high flyball rate, creating a potential advantage for the home team.

While the Angels have the 22nd best offense overall, they do boast a powerful lineup capable of hitting home runs. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the projections suggest a close contest. The Angels are currently seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, but their offensive potential may provide them with an edge against the Rangers’ pitching. As both teams look to find their footing, this matchup promises to be a pivotal moment in their respective seasons.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Jacob deGrom is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Adolis Garcia has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 91-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has used his secondary offerings 10.2% more often this season (63.3%) than he did last year (53.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme flyball bats like Mike Trout usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Mike Trout projects as the 12th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+16.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)