Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Rockies vs Red Sox – Monday July 07, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Boston Red Sox

On July 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams have had their struggles this season, with the Red Sox at 46-45, having an average year, while the Rockies sit at a dismal 21-69, reflecting a terrible season. The game marks the beginning of a series between these two teams, and the stakes are significant as the Red Sox look to build momentum against a struggling opponent.

Richard Fitts is projected to take the mound for Boston, and while he holds a 4.50 ERA this year, advanced projections indicate he has been somewhat lucky, with a 5.71 xERA suggesting he might perform worse moving forward. His low strikeout rate of 18.2% could be a concern, but he faces the Rockies, who rank 2nd in MLB in strikeouts, which may work to his advantage.

Austin Gomber will counter for Colorado, with a less than stellar 5.49 ERA and a low strikeout percentage of 6.9%. He also has a high projected earned run average of 3.5 for this game. This indicates that while both pitchers have their issues, Gomber may struggle more against a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 5th in MLB—demonstrating their ability to score runs. Boston’s offense also ranks 10th in home runs, which could pose a significant threat to Gomber.

Despite the Red Sox’s current struggles, the odds favor them significantly, with a moneyline of -230 suggesting they are expected to win by a wide margin. This game could be an opportunity for Boston to capitalize on Colorado’s deficiencies and gain some ground in the standings. As the season progresses, every game counts, and this matchup brings together a team looking to find its rhythm against one that has struggled to compete.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Austin Gomber’s 88.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2.2-mph decrease from last year’s 90.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Ryan McMahon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph dropping to 82.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to league average, Richard Fitts has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme flyball bats like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Austin Gomber.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Boston Red Sox in today’s game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+9.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.05 Units / 71% ROI)