Cardinals vs Cubs Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Sunday July 6, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Wrigley Field on July 6, 2025, for the third game of their series. The Cubs currently sit atop the National League Central with a strong record of 53-36, while the Cardinals are in the mix with a respectable 48-42 mark. Both teams are coming off a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Cubs fell to the Cardinals by a score of 8-6, marking a tough loss for Chicago.

Matthew Boyd is slated to take the mound for the Cubs. He has been impressive this season, boasting an 8-3 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.65. Boyd’s advanced Power Rankings position him as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is a reliable option for Chicago. In his last start on July 1, he went 7 innings with only 2 earned runs, showcasing his ability to navigate opposing lineups effectively.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a 4.56 ERA. Fedde has been prone to giving up runs, as evidenced by his last outing where he allowed 7 earned runs over just 5 innings. His high walk rate of 10.3% could be problematic against a Cubs lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks.

Offensively, the Cubs are thriving, ranking 4th in MLB overall and 5th in batting average. Their best hitter has been on fire recently, recording a .524 batting average over the last week, contributing significantly to their offensive success. In contrast, the Cardinals’ offense ranks a middling 15th overall and has struggled to find consistency.

With the Cubs being favored at -205 and an implied team total of 4.39 runs, they appear well-positioned to bounce back and capitalize on their strong home advantage against a struggling Cardinals squad.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 6.4% less often this year (62.5%) than he did last season (68.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)
  Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Seiya Suzuki has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 99.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  In today’s matchup, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 87 games (+12.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+190)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 50% ROI)