Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Royals vs Mariners Matchup 6/30/2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the Kansas City Royals at T-Mobile Park on June 30, 2025, in what marks the beginning of a series between these two American League teams. Currently, the Mariners sit at 43-40, enjoying an above-average season, while the Royals are struggling at 39-45, reflecting a below-average performance.

In their most recent game, the Mariners had a solid outing from their bullpen, which ranks 7th best in MLB according to advanced metrics. This could be a critical factor as George Kirby is projected to start for Seattle. Despite an ERA of 5.40 this season, advanced statistics suggest that Kirby has been unlucky, as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.58, indicating potential for improvement. His average projections today show he’ll pitch 6.3 innings and allow only 2.3 earned runs, although his tendency to allow 5.6 hits and 0.7 walks per game raises concerns.

On the other hand, the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, whose 3.33 ERA has been impressive this season, but he has a higher xFIP of 4.24, indicating that luck may not be on his side moving forward. Wacha’s average projections today show he’ll pitch 5.6 innings and permit 2.5 earned runs, making it an interesting matchup against a Mariners offense ranked 10th overall in MLB.

The Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting confidence in their superior offense and a strong bullpen. The projections for both teams indicate the Mariners should have a distinct advantage, especially given the Royals’ offensive struggles, ranking 26th in the league. Overall, Seattle looks poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the matchups in this game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Michael Wacha’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (92.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jac Caglianone has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 10% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, George Kirby (43.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 72 games (+28.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)