Latest Player Stats for Braves vs Mets – Thursday June 26, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

On June 26, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field in what is shaping up to be an intriguing National League East matchup. With the Mets currently sitting at 47-34, they are enjoying a solid season and boast the 6th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs with 107 this year. In contrast, the Braves are struggling with a 37-42 record, and their offense ranks 17th, facing challenges in many areas including power, as they sit 19th in home runs.

In their most recent game, the Mets extended their momentum with a remarkable performance that underscored their home-field advantage. Pitching for the Mets will be Griffin Canning, who despite an unflattering rank of #173 among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, has managed to take a 7-3 record with a decent ERA of 3.91. However, concerns about his high walk rate at 10.7 BB% could be problematic against a Braves lineup that is patient and ranks 6th in MLB in drawing walks.

On the mound for Atlanta will be Grant Holmes, an average pitcher who has recorded a 4-6 record with an ERA of 3.71 this season. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing around 2.6 earned runs, which is above average, but the Mets’ aggressive offense may expose his weaknesses, especially since he also has a high walk rate of 11.1 BB%.

With both team’s offenses ranking in the middle to lower tiers for batting average, this game will likely hinge on which pitcher can suppress walks and avoid giving up the long ball. Betting markets currently reflect this competitive nature, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110. The game total of 8.5 runs suggests that scoring could be moderate, but with the Mets’ firepower and the potential for Canning to outlast Holmes, expect them to be the favorites.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Griffin Canning’s 2151-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 6th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Pete Alonso has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 25 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)