Phillies vs Astros Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 6/26/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash in an exciting Interleague matchup on June 26, 2025, at Minute Maid Park. Both teams are currently enjoying strong seasons, sitting at 47-33, but the Astros are riding a wave of momentum after their recent 2-0 victory over the Phillies on June 25, marking a solid performance for the home squad.

On the mound, the Astros will send out Hunter Brown, who is having an impressive year with an 8-3 record and a stellar 1.88 ERA. He ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite status. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a slight regression, as his 2.84 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. Brown is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 31.6% strikeout rate, but he faces a Phillies offense that has been tough to strike out, ranking 6th least in MLB in that category.

The Phillies counter with Cristopher Sanchez, who has also been exceptional this season, holding a 2.87 ERA and a 6-2 record. Sanchez recently pitched a complete game, allowing just 1 earned run, which speaks to his effectiveness on the mound. While his projections are solid, he will need to navigate a potent Astros lineup that ranks 5th in team batting average and is equipped to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Astros listed as the betting favorites at -145, they have an implied team total of 3.77 runs, reflecting their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Phillies come in as underdogs with a lower implied total of 3.23 runs. Given the recent performances and the edge in starting pitching for the Astros, they look to maintain their winning momentum in this crucial matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-185)
  Generating 17.5 outs per start this year on average, Cristopher Sanchez places in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Hunter Brown’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 53% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)