Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: D-Backs vs White Sox Analysis – 6/25/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago White Sox

On June 25, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Diamondbacks enter this matchup riding high after defeating the White Sox 4-1 just yesterday, while the White Sox continue to struggle, holding a dismal 25-55 record this season.

The White Sox’s pitching will rely on Sean Burke, who has been inconsistent this year with a 3-7 record and a 4.50 ERA across 15 starts. Despite a decent outing in his last start, where he pitched 5 innings allowing just 1 earned run, Burke’s overall performance has been underwhelming. His 5.08 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate, suggesting a regression could be on the horizon. Compounding the challenge, he faces a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in MLB, boasting a strong lineup capable of capitalizing on his high-flyball tendencies.

Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, who has had a rough stretch recently, allowing 7 earned runs in his last start. However, Gallen’s 5-8 record and 5.60 ERA don’t tell the whole story; his 4.34 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and is likely to improve. With a solid strikeout rate, Gallen will look to exploit the White Sox’s #30 ranked offense, which has struggled to generate runs and power this season.

Despite the White Sox’s struggles, the projections suggest they could be undervalued as underdogs, given the Diamondbacks’ mixed recent form. With the game total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity, especially for those looking to capitalize on potential discrepancies in team performance and odds.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Zac Gallen has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.60 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.21 — a 1.39 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Alek Thomas has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 84.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .337 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Hitters such as Miguel Vargas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zac Gallen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.6% Barrel% of the Chicago White Sox makes them the #25 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+15.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)