Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
(+100/-120)-240
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Washington Nationals on June 22, 2025, all eyes will be on the pitchers tonight. The matchup comes after a competitive game yesterday where the Nationals clinched victory against the Dodgers, winning 7-3.
Currently, the Dodgers boast a solid record of 47-31, showcasing their dominance as they sit atop the National League. The Dodgers’ offense has been impressive, ranking 1st in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs with 120 this season. This potent lineup will look to exploit a struggling Nationals pitching staff, which ranks 20th in the league’s Power Rankings.
Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for the Dodgers, marking his first start of the season. Despite a rocky start with an ERA of 9.00, advanced projections indicate he has been unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 4.52. However, he faces a Nationals offense that has generated the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially hindering Ohtani’s ability to capitalize on strikeout opportunities.
On the other side, Mike Soroka is projected to start for the Nationals. With a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.06, Soroka is slightly better than his statistics suggest, as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.86. However, he will need to minimize damage against a Dodgers lineup known for its power, especially given Soroka’s high flyball rate.
With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Dodgers as strong favorites with a moneyline of -255, indicating a high implied team total of 5.79 runs. As the Dodgers look to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat, they are expected to leverage their offensive strength against the Nationals’ struggling pitching, making this matchup one to watch closely.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)Mike Soroka is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue in MLB — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)James Wood has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Washington Nationals batters as a unit rank 5th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 93.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)Because of his large platoon split, Shohei Ohtani will be in a tough position facing 7 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Bats such as Max Muncy with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Soroka who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.64 Units / 17% ROI)
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)Andy Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)