Explore the Mariners vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, June 22, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 22, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season, sitting at 46-30, while the Mariners are hovering around .500 with a record of 38-37. In their last outing on June 21, the Cubs secured a thrilling 10-7 victory, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB this season.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Colin Rea, who has had a mixed year. With a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.84, Rea is considered among the lower tier of MLB starters, ranking 214th according to advanced metrics. His projections for this game suggest he may struggle, averaging just 4.9 innings with 3.6 earned runs allowed. In contrast, Logan Gilbert of the Mariners is expected to take the hill. Gilbert has performed well this season, boasting a 2.55 ERA and a solid ranking of 16th among MLB starters. Although his record stands at 1-2, projections indicate he could pitch deeper into the game, averaging 5.5 innings with 3.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cubs have the edge with a lineup that ranks 5th in home runs and 3rd in stolen bases, while the Mariners sit at 8th in home runs but only 4th in stolen bases. Gilbert’s groundball tendencies may help him counteract the Cubs’ power, but it remains to be seen if he can keep them in check.

With a Game Total of 11.5 runs, sportsbooks are anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Cubs’ current moneyline is set at -105, while the Mariners are at -115, indicating a closely contested matchup. The projections favor the Cubs with a high implied team total of 5.68 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Luke Raley is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In today’s matchup, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Colin Rea has relied on his four-seamer 27.3% more often this season (47.2%) than he did last year (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago Cubs projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games (+11.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-140/+110)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 60% ROI)