Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+180
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies clash again on June 21, 2025, following a high-scoring affair yesterday where the Diamondbacks triumphed 14-8. With the Diamondbacks sitting at 38-37, they are currently in the middle of the pack in the National League West, while the Rockies languish at 17-59, marking one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Colorado’s struggles are evident, particularly with pitcher Carson Palmquist, who is projected to start today. Palmquist holds a dismal 0-4 record and a 7.76 ERA, ranking him as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His last outing saw him pitch 5 innings with 4 earned runs, and he has a tendency to allow fly balls, which could be problematic against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in the league with 108 home runs this season.
On the other side of the mound, Arizona’s Merrill Kelly is set to take the hill. With a solid 6-3 record and an impressive 3.41 ERA, Kelly is performing significantly better than his counterpart. Despite a slight uptick in his expected ERA, he has been consistent, and his last start featured 4 earned runs but also 7 strikeouts, showcasing his ability to handle pressure.
The projections suggest that the Rockies’ offense, ranked 26th in MLB, will struggle against Kelly’s command, while the Diamondbacks’ offense, ranked 2nd overall, poses a significant threat. With a high game total of 12.0 runs, bettors might find value in backing Arizona, especially as they look to capitalize on Colorado’s vulnerabilities and maintain momentum after their recent win.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Merrill Kelly didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last start and posted 1 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to record the most runs (7.15 on average) on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Extreme flyball batters like Orlando Arcia are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 57 games (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)