See the Updated Player Rankings for Royals vs Padres – June 20, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Kansas City Royals in an intriguing Interleague matchup on June 20, 2025, at Petco Park. Both teams are coming off wins, with the Padres securing a 5-3 victory over the New York Mets and the Royals defeating the Minnesota Twins 4-1. As the Padres sit at 40-34, they are having an above-average season, while the Royals are at 37-38, marking an average performance.

Nick Pivetta is projected to take the mound for San Diego. He has been impressive this season, sporting a 7-2 record and a solid 3.40 ERA. Pivetta’s last start on June 15 highlighted his capabilities, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 9 batters. With a high strikeout rate of 27.7% and a low projected earned run average of 2.3 today, he has the edge against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd worst in MLB for strikeouts.

Michael Lorenzen, on the other hand, is expected to start for Kansas City. Despite his experience, Lorenzen has struggled, with a 4-7 record and a higher-than-desired ERA of 4.91. His last outing saw him yield 3 earned runs over 6 innings, and his projections today don’t bode well either, as he is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and strike out only 3.7 batters.

The Padres’ offense ranks 20th overall but possesses potential with their best hitter enjoying a hot streak, boasting a .400 batting average over the last week. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks 27th and has struggled to generate power, which could work in Pivetta’s favor given his tendency to allow fly balls.

With a current moneyline of -155 favoring the Padres, the projections suggest they should capitalize on the Royals’ weaknesses, setting the stage for an exciting matchup at Petco Park.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (61.2% vs. 51.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  In his last outing, Nick Pivetta was in good form and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres (18.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+9.70 Units / 162% ROI)