Team Stats and Insights for Mariners vs Cubs Match Preview – 6/20/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 20, 2025, at Wrigley Field, they are looking to build on a strong season. The Cubs currently sit at 45-29, ranking 4th in MLB offense, while the Mariners are hovering around .500 at 37-36, ranked 14th in offense. This matchup marks the first game of the series between these two clubs, making it a crucial early contest.

In their last outing, the Cubs saw their ace, Matthew Boyd, deliver a solid performance with a Win/Loss record of 6-3 and an outstanding ERA of 2.79. Despite his impressive numbers, Boyd’s 3.98 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of success in the long run. On the other hand, George Kirby, projected to start for the Mariners, has struggled with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.96, although his 3.14 xFIP indicates he may be due for a correction.

The Cubs’ offense, which ranks 5th in home runs and 3rd in stolen bases, shows no signs of slowing down. With the projections favoring the Cubs to score around 4.97 runs, they seem well-positioned to capitalize against Kirby, who has been prone to allowing hits—projected at 6.2 on average today.

From a betting perspective, the Cubs’ current moneyline sits at -130, reflecting a close contest, but they appear to have the advantage with Boyd’s control against a Mariners lineup that ranks 6th in walks. Overall, with their strong batting lineup and Boyd’s capability to limit damage, the Cubs could emerge victorious in this intriguing interleague matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all SPs, George Kirby’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Reese McGuire is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 66 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 65% ROI)