Team Stats and Insights for Mariners vs Cubs Match Preview – 6/20/2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Chicago Cubs

On June 20, 2025, the Chicago Cubs host the Seattle Mariners at Wrigley Field for the first game of their interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 45-29, are having an excellent season and hold a solid position in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Mariners come in with a 37-36 record, indicating a more average performance this year. Both teams are looking to bounce back after losses in their previous games, with the Cubs falling to the Cincinnati Reds by a score of 8-7 and the Mariners losing to the Los Angeles Angels 3-1.

Matthew Boyd is poised to take the mound for Chicago. The left-handed pitcher has had a strong showing this season, boasting a 2.79 ERA and a 6-3 win-loss record after 14 starts. His advanced stats suggest he may have enjoyed a bit of luck this season, yet his ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) could give him an edge against the Mariners, who rank among the top offenses concerning drawing walks. If Boyd can continue to control his pitches effectively, he could exploit Seattle’s patience at the plate.

George Kirby, the Mariners’ right-handed starter, has struggled this season with a 5.96 ERA and a 1-3 record over just five games. Although he’s projected to perform better based on his advanced metrics, hitters have found ways to capitalize on his mistakes, especially regarding home runs. That could be problematic against a Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in offensive production, including a strong showing in home runs.

With the Cubs enjoying a favorable matchup, backed by a potent offense and strong pitching, they could assert their dominance at home. Despite the high game total set at 10.0 runs, Chicago’s implied team total of 5.34 runs suggests that oddsmakers see them as the team to beat in this opener.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Out of all SPs, George Kirby’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  J.P. Crawford has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Reese McGuire is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 66 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-105/-125)
  Matthew Boyd has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.55 Units / 90% ROI)