Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-275
On June 19, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees enter this game with a solid record of 42-31, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in the league, while the Angels sit at 36-37, struggling to find their footing this season. In their last encounter on June 18, the Yankees fell to the Angels by a score of 3-2, adding a layer of intensity to this fourth game of the series.
Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite a recent uneventful outing where he allowed three earned runs over five innings, Rodon has been a reliable force this season, boasting an impressive 3.01 ERA and a solid 8-5 record. His ability to strike out batters—averaging 6.7 strikeouts per game—could be crucial against an Angels offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. However, Rodon’s tendency to allow 4.8 hits per game could be a concern, especially facing a powerful Angels lineup that has hit 102 home runs this season, ranking 4th in the league.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson will start for the Angels. Anderson has struggled this season, with a 4.44 ERA and a troubling 2-4 record. His last start saw him give up six earned runs over five innings, raising questions about his effectiveness. With the Yankees’ offense ranked 2nd in the league, Anderson will need to be at his best to keep them at bay.
With the Yankees’ strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB and the Angels’ bullpen sitting at 29th, the Yankees appear to have the upper hand heading into this matchup. The projections indicate that the Yankees are likely to score around 6.18 runs, while the Angels are projected for a more modest 3.82 runs. This game is pivotal for both teams, but the Yankees, with their potent offense and a strong pitching advantage, are well-positioned to secure a victory.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Tyler Anderson’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (58.7% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Taylor Ward is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Scott Kingery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Scott Kingery hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Trent Grisham is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The New York Yankees have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.82 Units / 17% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+230)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Zach Neto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)