Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Orioles vs Rays – June 16, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Tampa Bay Rays

On June 16, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Rays currently sit with a record of 39-32, showcasing an above-average season, while the Orioles are struggling at 30-40, reflecting a disappointing year. Notably, the Rays won their last game 9-0, demonstrating a powerful offensive display, while the Orioles managed to secure an 11-2 victory in their most recent outing.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays, boasting a respectable 3.31 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.94, indicating he has been somewhat lucky. Pepiot’s average projection for this game includes 5.3 innings pitched, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 5.4 batters. In contrast, Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles, carrying a 4.08 ERA and a solid 6-2 record. Eflin’s projections indicate he might pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs with 4.6 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Rays rank 15th in MLB, with a balanced attack, while their stolen base prowess ranks them 1st overall. The Orioles, on the other hand, rank 17th in offense, struggling particularly with a batting average that sits at 21st in the league. Despite both teams having average implied totals of 4.25 runs for this matchup, the Rays’ superior pitching and offensive capabilities position them as the more favorable side in this contest. With the advanced-stat Power Rankings placing the Rays’ bullpen as the 8th best in MLB, they have the depth to support Pepiot and potentially secure a win against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball batters, Zach Eflin and his 44.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today’s game being matched up with 3 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ryan Pepiot’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (54.5% vs. 49.4% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 85.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80.3-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.88 Units / 19% ROI)
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)
  Dylan Carlson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 27% ROI)