Player Predictions for Marlins vs Rays – June 7, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to take on the Miami Marlins on June 7, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, they come off a strong performance where their best hitter racked up four home runs in the previous game. Currently, the Rays hold a record of 34-29, showing they are having an above-average season, while the Marlins struggle at 23-38, marking a disappointing campaign.

In this Interleague matchup, the Rays are projected to start right-hander Taj Bradley, who has had a mixed season but is considered above average, ranking 66th among starting pitchers in MLB. Bradley’s ERA stands at 3.95, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky, with a lower xERA suggesting better performance may be ahead. He typically pitches for about six innings and projects to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs, though his expected hits and walks allowed are concerning.

On the other hand, the Marlins will counter with lefty Ryan Weathers, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.49. However, projections indicate that he may regress, given his elevated xFIP. Weathers has only started four games this season, which limits his sample size but adds an element of unpredictability.

The Rays’ offense is ranked 17th in MLB this season, but they excel in speed, leading the league in stolen bases. The Marlins, ranked 20th in offense, face difficulties with power, hitting the 4th fewest home runs this year. This matchup could play favorably for Bradley, a high-groundball pitcher, against a Marlins lineup lacking power.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Rays are currently favored with an implied team total of 4.85 runs, while the Marlins sit at an average implied total of 4.15 runs. Expect a competitive contest as these two teams vie for an edge in what is the second game of the series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable advantage over groundball hitters, Ryan Weathers and his 43.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Taj Bradley meets a tough challenge facing 6 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the same side in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jake Mangum has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 80.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Brandon Lowe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 87% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)