Minnesota Twins
Athletics
(-110/-110)+165
On June 5, 2025, the Oakland Athletics are set to host the Minnesota Twins at Sutter Health Park for the fourth game of their series. The Athletics, currently struggling with a record of 23-40, have had a tough season overall, while the Twins sit at a respectable 34-27, marking them as a competitive force in the American League. In their previous matchup, the Athletics fell to the Twins by a score of 6-1, a reflection of their current woes.
Projected to start for the Athletics is Mitch Spence, who has had a challenging season with a 4.38 ERA and a ranking of 174th among MLB starting pitchers. Spence has made 22 appearances out of the bullpen, with a Win/Loss record of 1-1. His projections indicate he may struggle again today, as he is expected to pitch only 3.7 innings, allowing around 2.0 earned runs and striking out 3.3 batters on average. This lack of depth could be detrimental against a Twins lineup that, despite being average overall, has the potential to capitalize on any mistakes.
On the other hand, David Festa is slated to take the mound for the Twins. With an impressive 1.38 ERA and a ranking of 83rd among MLB starters, Festa is having a solid season. However, his projections suggest he may not maintain this elite performance, as he is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs.
The Athletics boast the 9th best offense in MLB, which may provide some hope, but their recent performance has been inconsistent. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Twins, who are favored with a moneyline of -195 and an implied team total of 5.47 runs. The projections favor the Twins, making them a strong pick in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)David Festa will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing batters today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Matt Wallner has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.4-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Minnesota Twins (24.7% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Athletics Insights
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Festa.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)Ty France has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 54% ROI)