Player Predictions for Cubs vs Nationals – June 4, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Washington Nationals

On June 4, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Chicago Cubs in the second game of their series at Nationals Park. The Cubs come into this matchup riding high after defeating the Nationals 8-3 in their last game, while the Nationals are struggling, having lost five of their last six contests. The stakes may not be high in terms of playoff implications, but both teams are looking to establish some momentum.

The Nationals currently sit at 28-32 this season, which is below average, while the Cubs boast a strong 38-22 record, positioning them among the top contenders in the National League. Washington’s offense ranks 15th overall, but they have shown flashes of speed on the bases, ranking 6th in stolen bases. However, their power numbers are lacking, with only 19 home runs this season, ranking 19th in the league.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has had an up-and-down season with a 2-5 record and a solid 3.16 ERA. His underlying metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as indicated by a 2.41 xFIP that indicates he could improve. Gore’s last start was impressive, going six innings with no earned runs, which may signal a turnaround. Conversely, the Cubs will counter with Matthew Boyd, who has a 5-2 record and a 3.08 ERA. Boyd’s projections show he might face challenges today, as he has been somewhat fortunate this season.

The Cubs’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd in the league, with a potent combination of power and batting average. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the odds suggest this could be a close contest, but the Cubs’ strong form and superior lineup give them the edge. Betting markets reflect this, with the Cubs favored at -135, while the Nationals sit at +115.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Because flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Matthew Boyd and his 38% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s outing facing 6 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Matt Shaw has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 81.4-mph dropping to 74.7-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his secondary pitches 5.7% more often this season (50.4%) than he did last season (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Chicago’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for James Wood, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.30 Units / 208% ROI)