Latest Player Stats for Cardinals vs Nationals – July 05, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 5, 2024, at Nationals Park, the matchup appears to be heavily tilted in favor of the visiting team. The Nationals, with a 41-46 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Cardinals, standing at 45-41, have been performing above average. This game marks the first in their series, and both teams are coming off narrow victories.

On the mound, Washington will start Patrick Corbin, a left-hander who has struggled mightily this season. With a 1-8 record and a 5.49 ERA, Corbin ranks as the 331st best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his poor surface stats, his 4.45 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could see some improvement. However, the projections are not kind, expecting him to allow 3.3 earned runs over 5.3 innings on average.

Opposing Corbin, the Cardinals will send Sonny Gray to the hill. Gray has been stellar with a 9-5 record and a 2.98 ERA, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB. The projections favor him to allow just 2.3 earned runs over 5.4 innings. Although Gray’s strikeout projection of 4.8 batters is below average, his high strikeout rate (31.3%) against the Nationals’ low-strikeout offense (#6 least strikeouts) creates an interesting dynamic.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Nationals rank 24th in MLB, with a particularly poor ranking of 29th in home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 22nd in offensive rankings, with average numbers in batting average (17th) and stolen bases (19th), but they also lack power, ranking 24th in home runs.

The best hitters for each team have been noteworthy. CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with a .279 batting average and .842 OPS across 79 games, while Brendan Donovan has been solid for the Cardinals with a .267 average over 81 games. Over the past week, Luis Garcia has been the standout for Washington, hitting .316 with a 1.065 OPS, while Dylan Carlson has been on fire for St. Louis, boasting a .400 average and 1.000 OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Cardinals as strong favorites, projecting them with a 61% win probability compared to the Nationals’ 39%. With the Nationals being listed as +135 underdogs, the implied win probability of 41% suggests there could be value on Washington if Corbin can outperform his season averages. However, given the overall team dynamics and pitching matchup, the Cardinals seem poised to take the first game of the series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Sonny Gray’s 2557-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• St. Louis’s 14.1° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball this year: #5 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Patrick Corbin is expected to wring up 3.5 strikeouts in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nick Senzel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Nick Senzel’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 84.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 76.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 85 games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)