Player Analysis for Marlins vs Angels – May 23, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels host the Miami Marlins on May 23, 2025, both teams are looking to find their footing in a challenging season. The Angels sit at 24-25, showing signs of an average year, while the Marlins struggle with a record of 19-29, marking a tough campaign thus far. This Interleague matchup holds significance, not just for bragging rights, but as both teams seek to turn their fortunes around.

In their last outing, the Angels’ pitcher Yusei Kikuchi displayed resilience, throwing a complete game shutout, an impressive feat that could spark momentum for the Angels. Kikuchi, projected to start again, has had a mixed season with a 0-4 record, yet his 3.50 ERA reflects his potential to perform well despite being unlucky according to his xFIP. He projects to pitch around 6.1 innings today, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, which is promising.

Conversely, Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ ace, has struggled this year with a 2-6 record and a troubling 7.99 ERA. However, projections suggest he could rebound, allowing around 2.6 earned runs over 6.2 innings. Alcantara faces a high-strikeout Angels offense, which could play into his favor, as he is known for inducing ground balls.

Despite their current standings, the Angels boast the 5th best home run total in MLB this season, which could be pivotal against a Marlins team with a weaker bullpen ranked 27th overall. The Angels are favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied team total of 4.33 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers see potential in their offensive capabilities. As the Angels look to capitalize on their power hitting, this matchup could be a turning point for both teams.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Sandy Alcantara is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Derek Hill’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 74.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has used his secondary offerings 7.4% more often this year (60.5%) than he did last season (53.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Taylor Ward are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-155)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)