Player Insights for Giants vs Nationals – 5/23/25

San Francisco Giants

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the San Francisco Giants at Nationals Park on May 23, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standing in the National League. The Nationals currently sit at 23-27, struggling with a below-average season, while the Giants are enjoying a solid 29-21 mark, showcasing their strong performance thus far.

In their last outing, the Nationals edged the Giants in a high-scoring affair, winning 8-4, while the Giants are coming off a tough loss. Pitching is expected to play a crucial role in today’s matchup, with the Nationals projected to start left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who holds a 2-4 record and a solid 3.67 ERA this season. Gore’s advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 2.48, indicating he could improve with better fortune. He projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters per game.

On the other hand, the Giants will counter with right-hander Landen Roupp, who has a 2-3 record and a 4.11 ERA. While Roupp’s stats indicate a decent performance, his xERA of 3.35 suggests he too may be due for a turnaround. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs but only striking out 4.3 batters, which may put additional pressure on the Giants’ bullpen.

Offensively, the Nationals have seen their best hitter excel recently, boasting a .529 batting average over the last week, which could bode well as they aim for a second consecutive win. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive matchup, with the Nationals holding an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Giants sit slightly lower at 3.95 runs. With both teams eyeing a win, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as they look to establish momentum.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Landen Roupp (45.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 6 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Wilmer Flores pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has used his non-fastballs 6.9% more often this season (51.6%) than he did last year (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-120)
  The Washington Nationals projected offense ranks as the 5th-weakest on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.14 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-160)
  MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)