Review Player Predictions Overview for Mariners vs White Sox – Wednesday May 21, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on May 21, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The White Sox, struggling with a dismal 15-34 record this season, are coming off a rare victory, having edged out the Mariners 1-0 in yesterday’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Mariners, at 27-20, are enjoying a solid campaign but will be looking to bounce back after that close defeat.

On the mound, the White Sox are set to start Shane Smith, who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2.05 ERA this season, ranking him as the 102nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, projections indicate that he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.06, suggesting a potential downturn in performance. Smith’s ability to keep runs off the board will be crucial, especially given the White Sox’s 30th-ranked offense, which has struggled to generate consistent scoring.

Facing him will be Logan Evans for the Mariners, who has a better Win/Loss record at 2-1 this year with a respectable 2.57 ERA. Yet, similar to Smith, Evans has also benefited from some good fortune, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.70. The Mariners’ offense is ranked 10th in MLB, showcasing its ability to produce runs, particularly with power, as they sit 6th in home runs.

In terms of betting, the White Sox appear as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, but the projections suggest they may have a better chance than their odds imply. With both pitchers having shown promise and the Mariners looking to recover, this matchup could be more competitive than expected, particularly if the White Sox’s offense can find a spark at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Logan Evans is an extreme groundball pitcher (45% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #8 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Considering the 2.29 disparity between Shane Smith’s 2.05 ERA and his 4.34 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and figures to see negative regression the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joshua Palacios has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Chicago White Sox have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Chase Meidroth has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+6.00 Units / 150% ROI)