Player Prop Bets for D-Backs vs Dodgers – May 19th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On May 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a pivotal National League West matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams have shown promise this season, with the Dodgers currently at 29-18, while the Diamondbacks sit at 25-22. The stakes are high as these clubs vie for position in a competitive division.

In their previous encounter on May 18, the Dodgers fell to the Diamondbacks by a score of 6-4, marking a setback after a strong start to the season. However, the Dodgers boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by their top-ranked team batting average and 2nd best home run total. This firepower will be crucial as they look to bounce back.

Landon Knack is projected to take the mound for Los Angeles, despite struggling this year with a 5.89 ERA and a 2-1 record across four starts. His performance has been characterized by poor control, as evidenced by his high walk rate of 9.8%. Facing him is Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt, who has a solid 3.73 ERA and a 6-3 record in nine starts. Pfaadt has shown good control with a low walk percentage, which could play to his advantage against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn.

While the Dodgers have the upper hand in offensive rankings, Knack’s recent struggles and the Diamondbacks’ 3rd best offense could make for a closer contest than the odds suggest. As the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -145 and a high implied total of 5.39 runs, the Diamondbacks, as underdogs, present an intriguing opportunity for bettors. With the game total set at 10.0 runs, offensive fireworks are expected as both teams look to secure a crucial win in this early series showdown.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Landon Knack’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2477 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2408 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Freddie Freeman will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Andy Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)