Recommended Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Orioles – Friday May 16, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Washington Nationals on May 16, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of their disappointing seasons. The Orioles hold a record of 15-27, while the Nationals sit slightly ahead at 18-27. Both squads are struggling, but they have an opportunity to turn things around in this Interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles were shut out 4-0 in their last game on May 15, while the Nationals fell 5-2.

Cade Povich is projected to start for Baltimore, and he comes into this game with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.55. Although he ranks as the 187th best starting pitcher, suggesting he’s been one of the worst in the league, his 4.39 xFIP indicates he might have been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Povich’s last outing was a rough one—he allowed 5 earned runs on 6 hits in 6 innings pitched on May 6.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore is set to take the mound for Washington. With a record of 2-4 and a solid ERA of 3.59, Gore ranks as the 51st best starting pitcher, showcasing his potential. Despite his strong performance, he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.1 per game. In his most recent appearance, Gore pitched 7 innings, allowing 4 earned runs while striking out 7 batters.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to find consistency at the plate. However, they have shown some power, ranking 11th in team home runs. The Nationals, while also not lighting up the scoreboard, rank 19th overall but have been more effective with their power, sitting 19th in home runs and 7th in stolen bases.

Given the projections and Povich’s potential for improvement, the Orioles may have a slight edge in this matchup, especially with home-field advantage and a capable bullpen ranked 9th in MLB. As both teams seek to regain their footing, this game could provide a turning point for one of them.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his non-fastballs 6.5% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last year (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  James Wood is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)