Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Red Sox vs Tigers – May 13, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox in the second game of their series on May 13, 2025. The Tigers are riding high after a dominant 14-2 victory over the Red Sox yesterday, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 6th in MLB. With a solid record of 27-15, Detroit is clearly having a strong season, while Boston sits at 22-21, struggling to find consistency.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Keider Montero, who has had a mixed season thus far with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.15. While Montero’s recent complete game performance on May 8, where he allowed just 1 earned run, indicates potential, the projections suggest he may be due for a regression. Facing a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup—ranked 3rd in MLB for strikeouts—could play to his advantage as he is a low-strikeout pitcher himself.

Brayan Bello, the Red Sox’s starter, has been impressive this season with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.01. However, his projections indicate he might also face challenges, particularly against the Tigers’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 5th in MLB. Bello’s performance will be crucial for Boston to avoid falling further behind in the standings.

Despite the close odds, the Tigers’ offense, bolstered by their 4th-best batting average and 7th-best home run total in the league, suggests they could exceed their implied team total of 4.35 runs. With the momentum from yesterday’s win and a strong home-field advantage at Comerica Park, the Tigers appear poised to continue their success against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.9% less often this year (49.1%) than he did last year (55%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Keider Montero.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Keider Montero’s 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.8-mph fall off from last season’s 94.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Zach McKinstry is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Detroit Tigers projected lineup today (.314 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .329 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-630)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+11.10 Units / 139% ROI)