Winning Probability and Team Stats for Padres vs Rockies Match – Friday May 09, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

On May 9, 2025, the San Diego Padres visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies in the first game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a dismal record of 6-31, which places them firmly at the bottom of the National League West. Conversely, the Padres are playing well with a record of 23-13, reflecting their strong performance so far.

In their last game, San Diego exhibited a powerful offense that has been above average this season, ranking 13th in MLB. The Padres’ best hitter has been on a tear, managing a .435 batting average over the past week, which could spell trouble for the Rockies, whose pitching staff has struggled mightily.

The matchup on the mound features Antonio Senzatela for the Rockies and Randy Vasquez for the Padres. Senzatela, who has a 1-5 record and a troubling 5.50 ERA this year, is projected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs. His low strikeout rate of 10.6% could be a concern against a Padres’ offense that has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Meanwhile, Vasquez, with his 1-3 record and a solid 3.90 ERA, will look to capitalize on the Rockies’ high strikeout rate.

The Rockies’ offense ranks a dismal 29th overall, which is compounded by their low output in home runs and batting average. Despite having a strong bullpen ranked 7th in MLB, it may not be enough to bridge the gap against a Padres team that boasts a robust bullpen ranked 3rd.

With a game total set at a high 11.0 runs and the Rockies listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +155, expectations are low for Colorado. However, the Rockies’ advanced stats suggest their struggles may not reflect their true potential, offering an intriguing narrative for bettors who believe in an upset.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Randy Vasquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Antonio Senzatela’s high utilization rate of his fastball (57.6% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball bats like Mickey Moniak generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to tally the 4th-most runs (5.49 on average) of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.12 Units / 33% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-185)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Michael Toglia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.40 Units / 66% ROI)