Reds vs Braves Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday May 6, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Atlanta Braves

On May 6, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves are currently struggling with a record of 16-18, while the Reds sit at .500 with an 18-18 record. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Braves secured a shutout victory against the Reds on May 5, winning 4-0.

The Braves are projected to start Chris Sale, who, despite a rough season with a 1-3 record and a 4.84 ERA, ranks as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Sale’s last outing was encouraging, as he pitched 7 innings with only 2 earned runs and 10 strikeouts. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.9 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 7.5 batters on average. However, he also projects to allow 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks, which could give the Reds a chance to capitalize.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott is set to take the mound for the Reds. Abbott has been effective so far, boasting a 2-0 record and a stellar 2.84 ERA, although his 4.50 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn. He projects for 5.1 innings with an average of 3.1 earned runs allowed, which is concerning given the Braves’ offense ranks 14th overall in MLB.

Despite the Braves’ struggles this season, they are favored heavily in this matchup with a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 5.02 runs. The Reds, conversely, are underdogs at +185, with an implied total of just 3.48 runs. With Sale’s elite status among pitchers and the Braves’ home-field advantage, they appear poised to continue their winning ways following a strong performance in their last outing.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bats such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Sale who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Blake Dunn).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his huge platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Austin Riley’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 19.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-630)
  Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+13.75 Units / 172% ROI)