Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Mets vs D-Backs – Monday, May 05, 2025

New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 5, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets at Chase Field in what marks the first game of a series between these two National League rivals. The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a record of 18-16, enjoying an above-average start to the season, while the Mets sit at 22-13, boasting a strong performance overall. In their most recent games, the Diamondbacks won a high-scoring affair against the San Diego Padres, 11-9, while the Mets fell short, losing 5-4 to the Atlanta Braves.

Arizona’s Ryne Nelson will take the mound as the projected starter, though he has yet to secure a starting role this season, having made seven appearances out of the bullpen. His ERA stands at a troubling 5.82, suggesting he has struggled to find consistent success. However, advanced projections indicate that he may have been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. In contrast, Griffin Canning of the Mets has a solid 2.61 ERA and is fresh off a standout performance where he pitched five scoreless innings against the Braves.

The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 5th best in MLB, showcasing significant firepower with a solid ability to draw walks, an area where they could exploit Canning’s high walk rate (10.6 BB%). Meanwhile, the Mets’ lineup, while strong, ranks lower in walk production, which could hinder their effectiveness against a high-strikeout pitcher like Nelson.

With a game total set at a high 10.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, with Arizona’s moneyline at -115, suggesting they are slight favorites. Both teams have the potential to score heavily, but how effectively they can capitalize on their respective opportunities at the plate will be key in determining the outcome.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Griffin Canning’s 2161-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 8th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Mets projected offense grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a unit rank among the elite in Major League Baseball this year (5th-) when it comes to their 90.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)