Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Mariners vs Rangers Match – 5/04/25

Seattle Mariners

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers will host the Seattle Mariners on May 4, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rangers enter this game struggling with a record of 16-18, while the Mariners are riding high at 20-12, showcasing a stark contrast in their seasons. The Rangers, currently 3rd in the American League West, are looking to turn their fortunes around after a narrow 2-1 loss to the Mariners yesterday.

Texas is projected to send Jacob deGrom to the mound, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. DeGrom ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.73. However, his 3.51 xFIP suggests he may have had a bit of luck this year, indicating potential regression. In his last start on April 29, deGrom delivered a stellar performance, going 6 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 7 batters, and walking none.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Logan Evans, who has had a rocky start to his season. With a 3.60 ERA and a concerning 5.36 xFIP, the projections suggest he may struggle against the Rangers’ offense, which, despite ranking 27th in MLB, has the potential to capitalize on Evans’ high walk rate.

The Rangers’ offense, while underperforming overall, ranks 12th in home runs, which could play a crucial role against a Mariners pitching staff that has been inconsistent. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Rangers, favored with a moneyline of -175, will look to leverage their home-field advantage and deGrom’s elite pitching to secure a much-needed win.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Logan Evans in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 11.3% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #3 squad in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all SPs, Jacob deGrom’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Joc Pederson has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+170/-225)
  Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)