Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Cardinals – Saturday, May 03, 2025

New York Mets

@

St. Louis Cardinals

The New York Mets (22-11) will battle the St. Louis Cardinals (14-19) on Sunday Night. Oddsmakers peg the Mets as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 59%, leaving the Cardinals with a 41% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Mets have an implied team total of 4.66 compared to 3.84 for the Cardinals.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Tylor Megill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Mark Vientos has a ton of pop (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (26.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante doesn’t generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Andre Pallante in the 6th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Lars Nootbaar has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 18.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)