Review the Cardinals vs Reds Insights and Game Breakdown – April 30, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 30, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup, especially following the Reds’ recent victory over the Cardinals on April 28, where they clinched the game by a score of 3-1. The Reds currently boast a record of 16-14, indicating an above-average season, while the Cardinals are struggling with a 13-17 record, pointing toward a difficult campaign.

Projected starters for this second game of the double-header are Chase Petty for Cincinnati and Steven Matz for St. Louis. Petty, ranked the 210th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rough season, averaging 5.0 innings pitched with projections showing he may allow 2.7 earned runs, which is below average. On the other hand, Matz, while having an impressive ERA of 1.80, has a concerning 3.94 xFIP that suggests his success may not be sustainable.

The Reds’ offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB this season, showcasing great depth, including strong performances from their top hitter, who has recorded 20 runs and a solid 0.771 OPS. Comparatively, the Cardinals hold an average ranking of 11th in offense but excel with a 3rd best team batting average. However, their power numbers are dismal, sitting 23rd in home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on offensive opportunities.

As betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Reds’ moneyline set at -115 and the Cardinals at -105, expect a tightly contested game. However, the Reds possess the advantage—bolstered by recent momentum and a strong offensive lineup—which may just tip the scales in their favor.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Steven Matz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Steven Matz has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Willson Contreras tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Cincinnati Reds projected offense today (.307 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)