Recommended Player Prop Bets for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – Tuesday April 29, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

On April 29, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of their series. The Blue Jays enter the matchup with a record of 13-15, struggling to gain traction this season, while the Red Sox sit at 16-14, showcasing a significantly stronger performance thus far. This American League East clash could be pivotal as both teams look to establish momentum.

In their last outings, the Blue Jays fell to the New York Yankees, suffering a 5-1 defeat on April 27, while the Red Sox secured a dominant 13-3 victory against the Baltimore Orioles the day before. Toronto’s Bowden Francis, projected to start, has had a mixed season, recording a 2-3 win-loss record and a respectable 3.58 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may not sustain this level, with a 4.17 xFIP indicating he could regress. His ability to keep the ball in play will be tested against a potent Red Sox lineup that ranks 7th in the league in offensive performance.

Boston’s Garrett Crochet, on the other hand, has been impressive with a 1.95 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 10th among pitchers. His recent start saw him struggle slightly with walks but show strong strikeout potential, fanning 9 batters in his last game. With Toronto’s offense ranking a dismal 23rd overall, they may find it challenging to capitalize against a pitcher of Crochet’s caliber.

While the Blue Jays have the home field advantage, their projected team total of 3.52 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect a low-scoring affair, reflected in the game total set at only 7.5 runs. Given the current trends, this matchup leans heavily in favor of the visiting Red Sox, who are positioned to take the series opener.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Garrett Crochet has experienced a significant drop off in his fastball velocity: from 95.2 mph over the whole season to 94.1 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Triston Casas is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Collectively, Boston Red Sox batters have struggled when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 7th-worst in the league.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 97.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.27 Units / 34% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)