Player Predictions for Marlins vs Dodgers – April 28, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins in the first game of their series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are enjoying a strong season with an 18-10 record, while the Marlins sit at 12-15, struggling to find consistency. In their last game on April 27, the Dodgers secured a convincing 9-2 victory, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB for home runs this season.

Dustin May is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite a rough outing in his previous start where he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings. Nevertheless, he holds a respectable 3.68 ERA this season and is considered an average pitcher by advanced metrics. The projections indicate that he is likely to improve, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks among the lowest in walks drawn. May’s ability to limit free passes could give him an edge in this matchup.

Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins, bringing a 6.14 ERA into this contest. He has struggled this season, with a winless record of 0-1 and projections suggesting he may be due for better results. However, he faces a daunting challenge against the Dodgers’ potent lineup. Cabrera’s flyball tendencies could lead to trouble, particularly against a team that has already hit 45 home runs this year.

Betting odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -280, reflecting their strong position. The Dodgers are projected to score an impressive 5.59 runs, while the Marlins are expected to struggle with a low total of 3.41 runs. With the Dodgers’ high-powered offense and a favorable matchup for May, this game presents a significant opportunity for Los Angeles to continue their winning ways.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Edward Cabrera’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (70.1% compared to 63.4% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Matt Mervis is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Matt Mervis pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-255)
  In his last outing, Dustin May performed well and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Michael Conforto has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-285)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order ranks as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-285)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+2.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 35% ROI)