Review the Braves vs Rockies Insights and Game Breakdown – April 28, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies

On April 28, 2025, the Colorado Rockies host the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field in what is the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 4-23, while the Braves hold a 12-15 record. The Braves enter this matchup as significant favorites, attributed to their higher ranking in offensive performance, where they stand as the 10th best offense in MLB compared to the Rockies, who rank 28th.

In their last games on April 27, the Rockies suffered a tough 8-1 loss, while the Braves fell short with a 6-4 defeat. Despite these recent struggles, the Rockies are projected to start Ryan Feltner, who, despite being ranked 171st among MLB starters, has shown moments of promise like his last outing where he allowed just 1 earned run over 7 innings. However, his overall stats indicate he may be due for a regression, as projections suggest he’ll allow an average of 3.2 earned runs today.

On the other hand, Bryce Elder, the Braves’ projected starter, also has a tough start to the season with a 5.57 ERA. Yet, his 4.51 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky, meaning he could improve as the season progresses. Elder’s match against the Rockies, who lead MLB in strikeouts, plays into his favor since he thrives against high-strikeout lineups.

As the Rockies look to turn their season around, they will lean heavily on their top hitter, who has been a standout with an impressive recent performance, boasting a 1.677 OPS over the last week. The Rockies enter this game with a projected team total of 4.59 runs, while the Braves are expected to score around 5.91 runs, highlighting the offensive gap in this matchup. Betting lines currently favor the Braves, although the Rockies will aim to exploit any weaknesses the Braves may show.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-170)
  The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Matt Olson is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Austin Riley projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Ryan Feltner is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .314 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)