Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Phillies vs Cubs Matchup April 25, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 25, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting recent performances. The Cubs, currently sitting at 16-10, are enjoying a strong season, while the Phillies, at 13-12, are performing above average. In their last game, the Cubs edged out their opponent with a thrilling 7-6 victory on April 23, while the Phillies fell short, losing 4-3.

In this National League showdown, pitching will be a key factor. Colin Rea, projected to start for the Cubs, has an impressive 1.32 ERA this season, though his 3.38 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Rea’s ability to limit walks (1.8 BB%) could be crucial against a Phillies lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in walks. This matchup may give Rea an edge, as the Phillies’ patience at the plate could be challenged by his control.

On the other side, Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies, boasting a solid 2.29 ERA. However, his 4.38 xFIP indicates he might regress, especially against a Cubs offense that ranks 1st in MLB. The Cubs have been a powerhouse at the plate, leading in batting average and home runs, making this a tough assignment for Walker.

With the Cubs favored at -145 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.29 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ projected team total sits at a modest 3.71 runs, reflecting the challenges they face against a strong Cubs lineup. Overall, this matchup presents a compelling clash between a potent offense and a pitcher trying to maintain his early success.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Taijuan Walker’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (67.8% compared to 59.8% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In the last week, Nick Castellanos’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Carson Kelly has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 91.4-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+17.30 Units / 87% ROI)