Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Mariners vs Red Sox – Thursday, April 24, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

On April 24, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox currently holding a record of 14-12 and the Mariners at 13-11. Last time out, Boston secured a victory over Seattle, which puts them in a favorable position heading into this matchup.

The Red Sox will start Garrett Crochet, who is enjoying an exceptional season with a 1.13 ERA and ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Although Crochet’s 3.19 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, his ability to strike out 7.1 batters per game keeps him a potent threat on the mound. In contrast, the Mariners are set to counter with Bryan Woo, who has a solid ERA of 3.12 but ranks 32nd among starting pitchers. Woo’s low walk rate (5.8 BB%) could challenge a Red Sox offense that tends to draw walks, potentially negating one of their strengths.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, particularly excelling in stolen bases (4th) but sitting at a middling 14th in home runs. The Mariners, however, showcase a potent long-ball threat, ranking 6th in the league in home runs, yet their overall offensive performance remains average at 12th.

With the Red Sox’s bullpen rated 6th and the Mariners’ languishing at 29th, Boston appears well-positioned to capitalize on their strengths. The current betting line reflects this belief, with the Red Sox favored at -175, indicating a high implied team total of 4.53 runs against Seattle’s low total of 3.47 runs. This game promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams look to cement their positions early in the season.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bryan Woo’s high usage percentage of his fastball (71.7% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Randy Arozarena has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last season’s 94.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Seattle Mariners offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this season (95.1 mph) below where it was last season (97.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Typically, bats like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bryan Woo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)