Review the Latest Player Stats for Rays vs Yankees – Friday, July 19, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

The Yankees, sitting at 58-40, are preparing to host the Rays at Yankee Stadium on July 19, 2024, in an American League East showdown. This series opener features a pitching duel between two of MLB’s top pitchers this season: Gerrit Cole for New York and Zach Eflin for Tampa Bay. Both teams come in with contrasting momentum: the Yankees suffered a close 6-5 loss to the Orioles in their last outing, while the Rays secured a 2-0 win over the Guardians.

New York’s offense has been a powerhouse, ranking 4th overall and 2nd in home runs. However, their achilles heel is a low ranking in stolen bases, sitting at 29th. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, struggles offensively with a 22nd overall ranking, but excels in stolen bases, ranking 5th. This might not pose much of a threat to Cole, who has been quite effective, albeit with some signs of bad luck this season.

Gerrit Cole’s ERA of 5.40 is deceiving, as his xFIP of 4.57 suggests he’s been better than his surface stats indicate. Despite his high ERA, Cole has managed a 2-1 record in five starts with a projection to perform well today, expecting to allow average 2.2 earned runs while striking out 7.1. His high-flyball rate (45%) could play into his favor against a powerless Rays lineup ranked 26th in home runs.

Zach Eflin, while having a solid season with a 3.99 ERA, has also been a bit unlucky. His xERA of 3.24 suggests he’s pitched better than his ERA reflects. Eflin faces a daunting task against a patient Yankees lineup that leads MLB in drawing walks, though his low walk rate (2.2%) might mitigate this advantage.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 65% chance to win, higher than the betting market’s implied 61% probability. The Yankees are favored in this matchup, especially given their strong offensive performance and Cole’s potential for a bounce-back. Expect a tight game, but the Bronx Bombers have the edge to start this series on a high note.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Zach Eflin has utilized his curveball 7.6% less often this season (18.9%) than he did last season (26.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Over the last 7 days, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Gerrit Cole’s 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 91st percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Gleyber Torres has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+14.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.25 Units / 28% ROI)